NOAA's Kp-forecast for Oct 5 - Oct 7
This forecast was updated Oct 5 2023 at . All times are local time in Finland.
| <
| 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2 | 2.7 | 3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2 | 2.3 | 3 | 3.7 | 3 | 3 | |||
| 03-06 | 06-09 | 09-12 | 12-15 | 15-18 | 18-21 | 21-00 | 00-03 | 03-06 | 06-09 | 09-12 | 12-15 | 15-18 | 18-21 | 21-00 | 00-03 | 03-06 | 06-09 | 09-12 | 12-15 | 15-18 | 18-21 | 21-00 | 00-03 | ||
| Oct 5 | Oct 6 | Oct 7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
The current surface of the sun in different wavelengths
Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
show previous rotation(s)
Perustelut ennusteille
| Aihe | Perustelu (päivitetty viimeksi 5.10.2023 kello 03:30) |
|---|---|
| Auringon aktiivisuus | Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through 07 Oct. |
| Aurinkotuuli | Solar wind parameters are anticipated to become enhanced due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and remain so throughout the forecast period, 05-07 Oct. An additional enhancement, primarily from the 02 Oct CME, is expected to arrive 07 Oct. |
| Geomagneettinen kenttä | The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active intervals through 06 Oct under positive polarity CH HSS effects. Primarily unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period, are expected 07 Oct with weak, glancing effects from the 02 Sep CME event. |
Roihupurkaukset eli flaret
Alla olevassa taulukossa näkyy viimeisten 3 vuorokauden aikana auringossa havaitut roihupurkaukset. Ajat ovat Suomen aikoja.
| päivä | alkoi | maksimi | loppui | luokka | alue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.10. | 02:32 | 02:33 | 02:37 | C1.7 mahdollinen CME | 3450 |
| 4.10. | 12:44 | 12:52 | 12:58 | C3.0 | 3453 |
| 4.10. | 12:44 | 12:52 | 12:58 | C3.0 | 3453 |
| 4.10. | 11:40 | 11:47 | 11:55 | C2.0 | 3452 |
| 4.10. | 10:49 | 10:56 | 11:00 | C2.5 | 3450 |
| 4.10. | 04:14 | 04:23 | 04:32 | C1.8 | 3452 |
| 3.10. | 23:55 | 23:56 | 00:02 | C1.6 mahdollinen CME | 3452 |
| 3.10. | 21:57 | 22:03 | 22:07 | C1.2 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 21:24 | 21:30 | 21:34 | C1.5 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 20:36 | 20:43 | 20:47 | C2.3 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 19:56 | 20:03 | 20:07 | C3.5 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 19:35 | 19:38 | 19:42 | C1.9 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 19:05 | 19:15 | 19:22 | C2.0 | 3452 |
| 3.10. | 18:40 | 18:44 | 18:48 | C2.3 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 15:06 | 15:12 | 15:16 | C1.9 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 14:00 | 14:04 | 14:17 | C1.7 mahdollinen CME | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 12:35 | 12:41 | 12:58 | C3.5 mahdollinen CME | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 11:21 | 11:29 | 11:38 | C1.4 | 3450 |
| 3.10. | 07:24 | 07:31 | 07:39 | C1.7 | 3454 |
| 3.10. | 06:56 | 07:01 | 07:06 | C1.9 | 3452 |
| 2.10. | 23:27 | 23:41 | 23:51 | C1.7 | 3450 |
| 2.10. | 19:29 | 19:35 | 19:40 | C2.0 | 3453 |
| 2.10. | 18:53 | 18:58 | 19:03 | C2.4 | 3450 |
| 2.10. | 15:35 | 15:46 | 15:58 | M1.8 | 3455 |
| 2.10. | 14:50 | 14:56 | 15:04 | C3.0 | 3450 |
| 2.10. | 13:34 | 13:43 | 14:03 | C1.7 | 3450 |
| 2.10. | 12:43 | 12:48 | 12:53 | C1.9 | 3449 |
| 2.10. | 11:57 | 12:05 | 12:10 | C2.9 | 3450 |
| 2.10. | 08:06 | 08:11 | 08:19 | C2.4 | 3451 |
| 2.10. | 07:08 | 07:26 | 07:42 | C3.2 | 3450 |
| 2.10. | 06:13 | 06:26 | 06:40 | C2.7 | 3452 |
| 2.10. | 04:16 | 04:21 | 04:35 | C2.0 | 3454 |
| 2.10. | 02:00 | 02:11 | 02:22 | C4.5 | 3449 |
| 2.10. | 01:30 | 01:43 | 01:53 | C2.5 | 3450 |
| 2.10. | 00:07 | 00:15 | 00:36 | C1.9 | 3450 |
| Probability of flares | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| C | M | X | |
| 4.10. | 90 % | 30 % | 5 % |
| 5.10. | 90 % | 35 % | 5 % |
| 6.10. | 90 % | 35 % | 5 % |
Sunspots
List of the sunspots and other active regions that were visible to the earth yesterday or today.
| Chance of flares | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region # | Location | Number of sunspots | Type | Area of the group | C-class | M-class | X-class | First observed |
| 3457 | S11 E62 | 1 | A | 30 | 5 % | 1 % | 1 % | 20:17 4.10.2023 |
| 3456 | S31 W20 | 1  | A | 10 | 5 % | 1 % | 1 % | 22:35 3.10.2023 |
| 3455 | N25 E33 | ? | ? | ? | 1 % | 1 % | 1 % | 20:26 2.10.2023 |
| 3454 | S22 E27 | 6  | B | 30 | 15 % | 1 % | 1 % | 16:51 1.10.2023 |
| 3453 | S02 W32 | 5 | B | 50 | 20 % | 1 % | 1 % | 16:51 1.10.2023 |
| 3452 | S02 E04 | 36 | B | 240 | 70 % | 15 % | 1 % | 12:48 1.10.2023 |
| 3451 | N03 E08 | 8 | B | 70 | 20 % | 5 % | 1 % | 12:58 30.9.2023 |
| 3450 | S33 W23 | 13 | B | 110 | 30 % | 5 % | 1 % | 21:21 27.9.2023 |
| 3449 | N15 W67 | ? | ? | ? | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 19:26 26.9.2023 |
| 3448 | N03 W47 | 1 | A | 90 | 5 % | 1 % | 1 % | 19:59 25.9.2023 |
WSA-Enlil-mallin ennuste
