NOAA's Kp-forecast for Oct 5 - Oct 7
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2.3 2.7 2.3 2 2.7 3 3.7 2.7 3.7 3 2 2.3 3.7 2.7 3.3 3.7 2 2.3 3 3.7 3 3
03-06 06-09 09-12 12-15 15-18 18-21 21-00 00-03 03-06 06-09 09-12 12-15 15-18 18-21 21-00 00-03 03-06 06-09 09-12 12-15 15-18 18-21 21-00 00-03
Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7
This forecast was updated Oct 5 2023 at . All times are local time in Finland.
The current surface of the sun in different wavelengths Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
show previous rotation(s)

Perustelut ennusteille

AihePerustelu (päivitetty viimeksi 5.10.2023 kello 03:30)
Auringon aktiivisuusSolar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through 07 Oct.
AurinkotuuliSolar wind parameters are anticipated to become enhanced due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and remain so throughout the forecast period, 05-07 Oct. An additional enhancement, primarily from the 02 Oct CME, is expected to arrive 07 Oct.
Geomagneettinen kenttäThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active intervals through 06 Oct under positive polarity CH HSS effects. Primarily unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period, are expected 07 Oct with weak, glancing effects from the 02 Sep CME event.

Roihupurkaukset eli flaret

Alla olevassa taulukossa näkyy viimeisten 3 vuorokauden aikana auringossa havaitut roihupurkaukset. Ajat ovat Suomen aikoja.

päiväalkoi maksimi loppui luokka alue
5.10. 02:3202:3302:37 C1.7 mahdollinen CME 3450
4.10. 12:4412:5212:58 C3.0 3453
4.10. 12:4412:5212:58 C3.0 3453
4.10. 11:4011:4711:55 C2.0 3452
4.10. 10:4910:5611:00 C2.5 3450
4.10. 04:1404:2304:32 C1.8 3452
3.10. 23:5523:5600:02 C1.6 mahdollinen CME 3452
3.10. 21:5722:0322:07 C1.2 3450
3.10. 21:2421:3021:34 C1.5 3450
3.10. 20:3620:4320:47 C2.3 3450
3.10. 19:5620:0320:07 C3.5 3450
3.10. 19:3519:3819:42 C1.9 3450
3.10. 19:0519:1519:22 C2.0 3452
3.10. 18:4018:4418:48 C2.3 3450
3.10. 15:0615:1215:16 C1.9 3450
3.10. 14:0014:0414:17 C1.7 mahdollinen CME 3450
3.10. 12:3512:4112:58 C3.5 mahdollinen CME 3450
3.10. 11:2111:2911:38 C1.4 3450
3.10. 07:2407:3107:39 C1.7 3454
3.10. 06:5607:0107:06 C1.9 3452
2.10. 23:2723:4123:51 C1.7 3450
2.10. 19:2919:3519:40 C2.0 3453
2.10. 18:5318:5819:03 C2.4 3450
2.10. 15:3515:4615:58 M1.8 3455
2.10. 14:5014:5615:04 C3.0 3450
2.10. 13:3413:4314:03 C1.7 3450
2.10. 12:4312:4812:53 C1.9 3449
2.10. 11:5712:0512:10 C2.9 3450
2.10. 08:0608:1108:19 C2.4 3451
2.10. 07:0807:2607:42 C3.2 3450
2.10. 06:1306:2606:40 C2.7 3452
2.10. 04:1604:2104:35 C2.0 3454
2.10. 02:0002:1102:22 C4.5 3449
2.10. 01:3001:4301:53 C2.5 3450
2.10. 00:0700:1500:36 C1.9 3450
Probability of flares
CMX
4.10. 90 % 30 % 5 %
5.10. 90 % 35 % 5 %
6.10. 90 % 35 % 5 %

Sunspots

List of the sunspots and other active regions that were visible to the earth yesterday or today.

Chance of flares
Region #LocationNumber of sunspots TypeArea of the groupC-classM-classX-classFirst observed
3457S11 E62 1 A30 5 %1 %1 %20:17 4.10.2023
3456S31 W20 1 A10 5 %1 %1 %22:35 3.10.2023
3455N25 E33 ? ?? 1 %1 %1 %20:26 2.10.2023
3454S22 E27 6 B30 15 %1 %1 %16:51 1.10.2023
3453S02 W32 5 B50 20 %1 %1 %16:51 1.10.2023
3452S02 E04 36 B240 70 %15 %1 %12:48 1.10.2023
3451N03 E08 8 B70 20 %5 %1 %12:58 30.9.2023
3450S33 W23 13 B110 30 %5 %1 %21:21 27.9.2023
3449N15 W67 ? ?? 0 %0 %0 %19:26 26.9.2023
3448N03 W47 1 A90 5 %1 %1 %19:59 25.9.2023

WSA-Enlil-mallin ennuste