Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Region 4392 (S16E15, Csi/beta-gamma) continued to evolve during the early portions of the period, developing additional penumbra and spots. AR 4392 was the culprit of the largest event of the period, which was an M2.7 flare at 16/1215 UTC. This event was associated with a Type II raido sweep with an estimated speed of 1,227 km/s, a Type IV radio sweep and a tenflare that peaked at 16/1213 UTC at 380 sfu. The resulting CME was then first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 16/1236 UTC as an asymmetric halo. Modeling of this event determined arrival at Earth on 19 Mar. .
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 19 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2212 pfu at 16/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 16/0606 UTC. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1233 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1133 UTC. Phi was predominantly in a positive orientation.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated, but gradually decline over the course of 17 and 18 Mar. Moderate enhancements are expected on 19 Mar with the arrival of the 16 Mar CME.
Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled over 17-18 Mar under a waning positive polarity CH HSS regime. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming, on 19 Mar with the arrival of the 16 Mar CME.