Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
Solar activity reached high levels with an isolated M6.0/1F flare that peaked at 04/0250 UTC and originated at Region 4300 (N07E46, Csi/beta-gamma). This flare was associated with an eruption observed in GOES/SUVI 284A imagery and, later, in the available coronagraph data. A preliminary model run indicates that this CME propagation path is not Earth-directed. A type-II radio sweep was observed around this M6.0 flare peak time by two USAF/RSTN stations, with estimated speeds of 345 and 484 km/s. Multiple radio bursts and radio noise storms were observed during the period, including a Type-IV radio sweep at 04/0832 UTC. Other seven active regions remained in the visible solar disk, contributing with the measured C-level background activity. It is worth highlighting the growth of the Region 4301 (S07W51, Dai/beta-gamma) and Region 4296 (S14E30, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), which was responsible for the second largest flare of the period: a C9.2 peaked at 04/0016 UTC. Despite the eruption described above and the earlier filament eruption first observed at the southwest quadrant at 03/1106 UTC (both not expected to impact Earth), no other CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. .
Isolated to occasional M-class flares are expected (75%) through 06 Dec, with a chance for X-class flares (30%), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit returned to moderate levels abruptly around 03/1845 UTC and remained below threshold, after reaching high levels (with a peak flux of 6,340 particle flux units reached near 03/1350 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .
Solar wind parameters responded to the anticipated arrival of both negative CH/HSS and embedded CME (associated with the X1.9 flare on 01 Dec) during the period. Phi angle became predominantly negative after about 03/1915 UTC, indicating an IMF sector with field lines pointing toward the Sun (due to the influence of a negative CH/HSS). The solar wind density increased about 3 times the nominal levels after that, reaching a maximum value around 03/1945 UTC. Around that time, the solar wind speed was below 500 km/s, the total IMF was near its maximum of 20 nT, with Bz component reaching its most negative level of -15 nT. These suggested an additional influence of the CME passage near Earth. After that, the solar wind speed increased to about 700 km/s, while the density and total magnetic field decreased to levels compatible with a HSS regime.
The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain disturbed by the negative CH/HSS influences through 06 Dec, returning to nominal levels on 07 Dec.
Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at minor storming (Kp=5) levels during the past 24h, with a two active (Kp=4) synoptic periods (03/1500-1800 UTC and 04/0900-1200 UTC) and a single major storming (Kp=7) period at 03/1800-2100. The major storming period was likely the result of the combined influence of the negative CH/HSS arrival and the CME that left the Sun on 01 Dec.
The geomagnetic field will likely to remain at storming levels until the end of 04 Dec, returning to active conditions on 05-06 Dec and reaching unsettled levels on 07 Dec, as the influence of the CH/HSS wanes.